Grain Corridors, Power Shortages, and Parallel Summits

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Grain Corridors, Power Shortages, and Parallel Summits

Ukraine and Turkey signed a renewed Black Sea grain export corridor deal—with Qatar underwriting insurance premiums for participating ships. Russia, though not a party to the deal, signaled it would not interfere for now, as domestic grain prices have stabilized. The EU praised the agreement as a “model of regional burden-sharing,” though skeptics warn that the corridor remains militarily vulnerable.

In India, rolling blackouts across several states reignited criticism of the government’s slow transition away from coal. As COP29 approaches, New Delhi reaffirmed its net-zero 2070 target, but offered no new measures. Germany and South Africa announced a joint climate finance facility to assist fossil fuel phaseout, suggesting that South–South and triangular partnerships may increasingly replace top-down pledging systems.

Finally, while the G7 held a virtual foreign ministers’ meeting focused on Israel-Gaza stabilization and Red Sea shipping threats, BRICS members met in-person in Cape Town to discuss global reserve diversification and digital currencies. Both groups cited stability as their goal—but offered wildly different diagnoses and prescriptions.

The APEC Divide: Integration with Caveats

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

The APEC Divide: Integration with Caveats

This year’s APEC Summit in San Francisco was anything but routine. U.S. President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first in-person bilateral in over a year, striking a cautiously optimistic tone. Agreements on fentanyl precursor tracking, military hotline restoration, and limited tech cooperation were hailed as “confidence-restoring,” though neither side gave ground on trade disputes or Taiwan.

Notably, Vietnam and Indonesia used the summit to pitch a new ASEAN-Pacific infrastructure framework, aimed at drawing blended financing from both U.S. and Chinese sources without locking into either geopolitical camp. The approach—what Jakarta termed “strategic duality”—is becoming an increasingly common posture among middle powers.

However, Canada and Mexico clashed with the U.S. over electric vehicle subsidies, arguing they breach North American trade rules. The squabble, though overshadowed by the larger U.S.-China optics, underscores that regional friction can persist even amid global détente.

Remembrance and Realignment

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Remembrance and Realignment

As world leaders marked Armistice Day ceremonies, underlying diplomatic tensions reminded everyone that memory and strategy often coexist uncomfortably. France hosted a scaled-back commemorative summit in Verdun, with Ukrainian and African representatives invited alongside NATO members. Russia was pointedly excluded.

Back in Kyiv, the Zelenskyy government launched a new diplomatic offensive—literally and figuratively. Ukrainian embassies rolled out a “Peace with Justice” campaign, designed to build pressure on holdout states in the Global South to endorse the ten-point peace plan Zelenskyy unveiled at last year’s UNGA. Response was muted, though India and Kenya signaled interest in observer roles.

Elsewhere, Ethiopia and Eritrea reopened talks over border demarcation after months of quiet Omani shuttle diplomacy. While the process is still in its infancy, regional stakeholders, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are quietly investing political capital to ensure the fragile opening does not collapse.

Ceasefires, Supply Chains, and the Silence of Allies

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Ceasefires, Supply Chains, and the Silence of Allies

A U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas entered its second week, though violations on both sides threaten its stability. While humanitarian aid resumed in parts of northern Gaza, international monitors remain absent, raising concerns about the ceasefire’s long-term enforceability. Egypt and Qatar continue to play key mediation roles, though their influence appears increasingly transactional.

In East Asia, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry faced turbulence after new U.S. export restrictions targeting high-end chip tools. While officially framed as a “tech-national security” measure, the controls have sparked quiet frustration in Taipei, which sees itself squeezed between strategic partnership and economic vulnerability. Japan and the Netherlands, under pressure to align with Washington, offered lukewarm support.

Meanwhile, Brazil launched a regional supply-chain pact with Argentina, Chile, and Colombia aimed at insulating Latin American trade from dollar shocks and commodity bottlenecks. The pact is still embryonic, but its ambition reflects a growing desire for regional economic sovereignty—especially as global markets grow more unpredictable.