A Year in Flux: Recap, Realignment, and the Road Ahead

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

A Year in Flux: Recap, Realignment, and the Road Ahead

As 2024 draws to a close, the international landscape bears little resemblance to the post-pandemic optimism that marked the decade’s start. This year saw middle powers assert unprecedented influence—from Brazil’s climate brokerage to Türkiye’s energy diplomacy. Conflict hotspots hardened, while multilateralism stumbled forward through climate gridlocks, sanctions, and new economic coalitions.

Russia’s war in Ukraine persists, Israel and Hamas remain in uneasy ceasefire, and Taiwan prepares for elections amid military posturing. Meanwhile, digital sovereignty and energy security now drive alignment decisions once based on ideology or geography.

What comes next will depend not on the declarations of the powerful alone, but on how the crowded, multipolar middle navigates uncertainty. Diplomacy, once the domain of state elites, is now a high-stakes exercise in public signaling, parallel deals, and contested truths. In 2025, we watch, we interpret—and yes, we speak, undiplomatically.

Ties Cut, Deals Made, and the Diplomacy of Absence

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Ties Cut, Deals Made, and the Diplomacy of Absence

Just days before the holiday recess, North Korea officially expelled all remaining South Korean personnel from the Kaesong liaison office and declared its intent to nullify the 2018 Panmunjom Declaration. Seoul responded with symbolic sanctions and military readiness alerts. Regional actors, especially China and Russia, remained publicly indifferent—highlighting a growing diplomatic vacuum on the peninsula.

Elsewhere, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat announced a new digital customs protocol that will allow automated clearance of goods across participating states. Kenya, Ghana, and Rwanda have signed on immediately, signaling early confidence in what could be a transformational moment for intra-African trade.

Meanwhile, the EU and ASEAN signed a new Strategic Connectivity Agreement focused on sustainable logistics and green ports. Though the deal is modest in scope, it reflects growing attempts to de-risk global trade infrastructure from singular dependencies—especially on China.

Green Smoke, Gray Zones, and Global Gridlock

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Green Smoke, Gray Zones, and Global Gridlock

After days of tension and brinkmanship, COP29 concluded with a deal that’s being called both “historic” and “hollow.” The final text includes the phrase “transitioning away from fossil fuels”—a semantic victory for climate advocates, but short on specifics or enforcement mechanisms. Developing nations decried the lack of binding finance mechanisms, and activists labeled the outcome a “green smoke screen.”

Meanwhile, in the South China Sea, Philippine and Chinese vessels collided during a disputed maritime patrol near Second Thomas Shoal. Both sides blamed the other, with Washington reiterating its defense commitments to Manila. ASEAN issued a cautious statement, once again exposing the bloc’s limits as a regional security actor.

Elsewhere, Argentina’s new libertarian president formally froze diplomatic ties with Venezuela and announced a pivot away from Mercosur in favor of bilateral trade with the U.S. and UK. The move marks a sharp ideological departure in South American regionalism, likely setting the tone for a fractured 2025 ahead.

Sanctions, Sovereignty, and the Stakes of Surveillance

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Sanctions, Sovereignty, and the Stakes of Surveillance

The EU finalized its 14th sanctions package against Russia, targeting dual-use tech components and crypto-payment channels allegedly aiding Moscow’s military. The move, coordinated with the U.S. and Japan, extends financial surveillance frameworks and pressures Armenia, Georgia, and Turkey to crack down on transshipment. Moscow called the measures “economic warfare,” vowing countersanctions and judicial retaliation through its regional trade pacts.

In Africa, Burkina Faso and Niger formally suspended military cooperation with France, citing “disrespect for national sovereignty.” Russian advisors have reportedly expanded their footprint in Ouagadougou, though both governments deny offering bases to Wagner successors. Meanwhile, the AU remains silent—torn between non-interference doctrine and growing security vacuums across the Sahel.

Finally, Ecuador declared a state of emergency after cyberattacks knocked out half of Quito’s municipal grid. While attribution is still underway, officials hinted at foreign involvement, citing patterns resembling previous state-linked intrusions. Cyber norms may yet be the 21st century’s least enforceable frontier.

COP29 Begins: Emissions, Expectations, and the Elephant in the Room

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

COP29 Begins: Emissions, Expectations, and the Elephant in the Room

COP29 opened in Baku, Azerbaijan, amid record global temperatures and widening diplomatic fault lines. While the host nation emphasized “energy transition diplomacy,” critics noted that Azerbaijan’s continued gas exports undercut the summit’s moral authority. The U.S. and EU pushed hard for fossil fuel phase-out language, while China and India continued advocating for “phase-down” and “common but differentiated responsibilities.”

Pacific Island nations issued a joint plea for loss-and-damage delivery frameworks to be finalized this year. Germany and Canada pledged new funds, but African states remain skeptical of donor follow-through. The G77+China bloc is demanding binding commitments, not pledges, further complicating consensus.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia quietly hosted side meetings with energy ministers from Brazil and Indonesia to float ideas for an OPEC-style cartel for critical minerals—potentially reshaping the geopolitics of green transition inputs.