Mediators and Militaries

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Mediators and Militaries

Qatar and Egypt launched a new round of ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel, brokered with quiet backing from the CIA and Mossad. Though Israeli ground operations in Rafah continue, sources suggest Israel may allow a short ceasefire to facilitate hostage releases. Hamas is demanding a phased truce and international guarantees—neither of which are forthcoming.

In Ukraine, President Zelenskyy reshuffled his military leadership, replacing General Zaluzhnyi with Colonel-General Syrskyi. Western analysts noted the move could signal internal dissent over battlefield strategy. The White House expressed “full support” for Ukraine’s civilian leadership, but behind the scenes, frustrations over lack of progress are mounting.

The WTO held its 13th Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi, but expectations were low. Talks on e-commerce, fisheries, and agricultural subsidies produced no binding commitments. A handful of developing nations walked out over what they called “structural marginalization,” once again casting doubt on the WTO’s capacity to adapt to 21st-century trade realities.

Airstrikes, Algorithms, and Arctic Ambitions

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Airstrikes, Algorithms, and Arctic Ambitions

U.S. and UK forces struck Houthi positions across Yemen in a joint escalation meant to secure Red Sea shipping lanes. The strikes prompted UN Security Council emergency consultations, but no resolution was passed due to Russian and Chinese veto threats. Iran called the strikes “illegal acts of aggression” and warned of regional blowback.

In AI diplomacy, the OECD released a draft framework on cross-border data governance and AI ethics, drawing cautious praise from the EU and South Korea. China criticized it as “normative colonization,” preferring a state-led, sovereignty-first approach. The framework marks a key attempt at global digital governance, though real harmonization remains distant.

Finally, Russia announced new joint naval exercises with China in the Arctic Sea, raising eyebrows in NATO capitals. While framed as “anti-piracy operations,” the deployment of nuclear-capable submarines signals a broader ambition to rewrite Arctic governance—and test NATO's response latitude in non-traditional theaters.

Recognition and Retaliation

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Recognition and Retaliation

Chile and Belgium became the latest countries to recognize the State of Palestine, joining a small but growing list of Western democracies diverging from U.S. and Israeli policy. The moves prompted immediate diplomatic downgrades by Israel, which described the recognitions as “rewarding terrorism.”

Meanwhile, in Gaza, humanitarian conditions worsened as Rafah became the epicenter of renewed Israeli military operations. Egypt closed the Rafah crossing citing security concerns, while the WHO warned that medical infrastructure in the strip has “collapsed in function if not in form.”

Iran hosted a summit with Syria, Hezbollah, and senior Iraqi militia leaders in Tehran, reportedly to coordinate a “unified axis response” should Israel expand operations in southern Lebanon. The U.S. has placed its CENTCOM forces on alert, but avoided signaling broader involvement—so far.

Courts, Convoys, and Containment

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Courts, Convoys, and Containment

As the ICJ deliberates provisional measures in South Africa’s genocide case against Israel, global reactions to the proceedings are hardening. The U.S. reiterated its support for Israel, while European capitals remain divided. Meanwhile, civil society and academic institutions increasingly cite the trial as a litmus test for Western credibility on human rights.

At sea, the Red Sea crisis continues to disrupt global logistics. Maersk announced permanent route shifts for key cargo lines, citing unacceptable risks from Houthi drone and missile attacks. The EU naval mission “Aspides” launched under a Greek command structure, marking rare operational cohesion from Brussels on defense. However, its mandate remains strictly defensive—underscoring continued discomfort with military engagement.

In the Pacific, Japan announced its largest defense budget in postwar history, including hypersonic missile research and naval expansion. Tokyo’s rearmament—framed domestically as a necessary deterrent—is reshaping regional defense architecture, especially with Australia and the U.S. reinforcing joint basing agreements.