UNdeadlock and Shadow Summits

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

UNdeadlock and Shadow Summits

The final week of March exposed the widening disconnect between global governance frameworks and the realities they’re meant to manage. At the United Nations Security Council, a U.S.-backed resolution calling for a conditional ceasefire in Gaza was vetoed by Russia and China, while a competing Russian draft failed to secure enough votes. Diplomats described the atmosphere as “ritual paralysis.”

Amid this, Egypt hosted a closed-door summit bringing together Jordanian, Qatari, and Turkish security officials alongside U.S. and EU envoys. Though officially described as “humanitarian coordination,” sources suggest discussions touched on future governance models for Gaza—post-Hamas, post-IDF, but still entirely speculative. The absence of Palestinian representatives underscored how distant a political solution remains.

Elsewhere, Brazilian President Lula da Silva traveled to New Delhi for a BRICS+ mini-retreat, where the bloc discussed a tentative blueprint for a cross-border digital payments system. Analysts view this as another cautious step away from dollar hegemony, with an eye on enhancing South-South trade flows. India remains hesitant to move too quickly, wary of regulatory gaps and cyber vulnerabilities.

Meanwhile, climate diplomacy took a symbolic step forward as Kenya and Germany co-chaired a pre-COP30 ministerial in Nairobi, reaffirming commitment to climate financing targets—but without a binding framework or enforcement mechanism. The declarations read more like aspiration than architecture, but they kept the lights on ahead of the November summit in Brazil.

Gas Deals and Global Courtrooms

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Gas Deals and Global Courtrooms

Qatar and the EU announced a long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply deal, locking in over 20 billion cubic meters per year through 2045. The deal bypasses Russia and reduces dependency on U.S. shipments, sparking quiet frustration in Washington over Brussels’ growing commercial autonomy in energy diplomacy.

At The Hague, the International Criminal Court opened preliminary hearings on war crimes allegations in Gaza and Ukraine. The court is under intense pressure from civil society, though many major states—including the U.S., China, and Russia—reject its jurisdiction. The outcome may not deliver justice, but the optics are politically potent.

In East Asia, North Korea claimed to have tested a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of striking U.S. Pacific bases. Though unverified, the announcement triggered emergency consultations among Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. Pyongyang’s pattern of provocation is back, calibrated for maximum strategic ambiguity.

Security Theatre and Soft Power Tests

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Security Theatre and Soft Power Tests

President Xi Jinping concluded a rare multistate tour of Central Asia, finalizing new security cooperation agreements with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The deals formalize a “regional counterterrorism architecture” under Chinese leadership, raising questions about Russia’s waning influence in its traditional backyard.

Back in Europe, France hosted a Ukraine donors' summit, securing €22 billion in fresh reconstruction pledges—though some governments privately admitted the funds will be delayed or redirected due to domestic fiscal pressures. German Chancellor Merz, in his first major diplomatic speech, emphasized that “support must be sustainable, not symbolic.”

Meanwhile, Kenya and India signed a major defense cooperation pact, expanding joint training and naval patrols in the Indian Ocean. The move reflects both nations’ ambitions to shape regional security architecture beyond traditional Western-led frameworks.

Border Walls and Red Lines

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Border Walls and Red Lines

Finland formally sealed all land border crossings with Russia, citing a deliberate influx of asylum seekers as part of Moscow’s hybrid pressure campaign. NATO expressed support, while the Kremlin called the move “Russophobic theater.” The Baltic states followed suit with joint military readiness drills along their eastern frontiers.

In the Middle East, ceasefire talks stalled again after Israel demanded full disarmament guarantees from Hamas, which negotiators say are unrealistic in current conditions. The humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate, with UNRWA facing funding cuts from major Western donors over disputed internal reviews.

Elsewhere, the African Union mediated an urgent summit between Ethiopia and Egypt over tensions related to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. While no agreement was reached, the AU declared both sides committed to avoiding military escalation—at least for now.

Elections, Embargoes, and Economic Leverage

Diplomacy 101: Undiplomatically Speaking

Where Beliefs Clash and Stories Flash

Elections, Embargoes, and Economic Leverage

Super Tuesday dominated headlines in the U.S., but abroad, the implications of a possible second Trump presidency have already begun to shape diplomatic calculations. European diplomats are quietly reviving discussions on strategic autonomy, and NATO defense ministers met in Brussels with an unusually explicit agenda: contingency planning for American retrenchment.

In Latin America, Venezuela's electoral commission barred key opposition candidates from registering for the July elections, drawing swift condemnation from the EU and OAS. The U.S. reinstated sectoral sanctions on Venezuelan oil, prompting a rare joint statement from China and Russia warning against “coercive economic unilateralism.”

Meanwhile, Indonesia and South Korea signed a major bilateral digital trade agreement, including AI standards, cybersecurity coordination, and 5G infrastructure investment. The deal signals the increasing role of middle powers in setting tech governance norms outside of U.S.-China bipolarity.